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June 8, 2026
OPEC+ has approved a fourth consecutive increase in oil production targets despite continued disruptions to global energy supplies caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing regional tensions.
Read more: OPEC+ Members Announce Oil Output Increase
OPEC+ has approved a fourth consecutive increase in oil production targets, even as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy markets and limit the ability of several major producers to increase actual supply.
According to Dawn and The Express Tribune, seven core OPEC+ members agreed to raise their combined production targets by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) from July, marking the fourth monthly increase since April.
The decision comes amid one of the most significant supply disruptions in recent history. Ongoing tensions involving the United States and Iran have severely affected oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies typically pass.
While OPEC+ members have continued to increase output quotas, actual production has declined sharply due to export restrictions and logistical challenges facing Gulf producers. According to OPEC figures cited in the reports, production fell to 33.19 million barrels per day in April from 42.77 million barrels per day in February.
The latest increase follows earlier monthly adjustments of 206,000 bpd in April and May, and 188,000 bpd in June. The production hikes form part of OPEC+’s gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023.
“An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy and former OPEC official. He warned that once the shipping route reopens, markets could quickly shift “from fear of shortage to fear of surplus.”
Analysts have also questioned the practical impact of the latest decision, arguing that geopolitical realities continue to prevent producers from fully utilising their allocated quotas. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that any announced production increases would have “limited practical value” while regional disruptions persist.
The situation has been further complicated by the United Arab Emirates’ departure from OPEC after nearly six decades of membership, raising questions about the organisation’s future cohesion and influence within global energy markets.
In a separate meeting, OPEC+ ministers left broader group-wide production policies unchanged through the end of 2026. The alliance also reaffirmed the importance of completing an ongoing review of member production capacities, which will help determine future output baselines and quotas beyond 2026.
